With a little more than 2 weeks to go in the baseball season the only thing we know is the White Sox will represent the AL Central. Other than that, pretty much anything can happen.
AL East Race
The AL East race between the Red Sox and Yankees may come down to the 3 game series, the final weekend in Fenway. While most baseball fans are hoping the Yankees can stay close enough to make that series a do or die, the fact is, that series will most likely be the Yankees playing for their playoffs lives. The Red Sox have 18 games left, most of them at home. If they go 10-5 in their next 15 games, the Yankees, who have 16 games in that time, would have to go 12-4 to have any shot of winning the AL East. The Yankees have to come in to that series 1 game out, otherwise they would need to sweep the Red Sox, in Fenway, the last series of the season to win the division. The odds of that happening are slim to none. It would be a right up there with 1978 and 1986 for most heartbreaking endings to the season for the Red Sox. So, realistically, the Yankees have their sights set on the wild card, regardless of what the Yankees tells you. Even Red Sox fans know that the 2 ½ game lead they hold right now is enormous based on the schedules remaining for the two teams.
AL West and Wildcard
So the last two AL
spots will be four team battle headed by the A’s, Angels, Yankees, and Indians.
One game separates the A’s and Angels in the west. The West could be decided this week as the A’s have a 1 more game in Cleveland and 4 in Boston, while the Angels play 1 more in Seattle and host the Tigers for 4 games this weekend.
The Angels should go, at worst, 3-2. While the A’s will be lucky to escape these next 5 games with 2 wins. Look for the Angels to have 3 game lead come Monday unless the A’s young pitching, minus ace Rich Harden, pull off a miracle. I personally think if the A’s don’t win 3 out of their next 5, they are out of the playoff race all together.
The wild card should end up being a two team sprint between the Indians and the Yankees. The Indians have a 1 game lead and a schedule that has them playing the Royals 7 times, the White Sox 6, and Tampa
3. The Yankees play 2 more with Devil Rays (who lead the season series 11-6), 8 with Baltimore
, 3 with Toronto
, and the season ending 3 games in Boston
.
The Indians should go no worse than 5-2 vs. the Royals, and will most likely take 2 out of 3 vs. the D-Rays at the Jake. That’s 7-4, leaving 6 with the White Sox, with one of the those series being the last 3 games of the year when the Sox will have already clinched the division. Since the playoffs start the Tuesday after the season, you can expect the White Sox will pitch Mark Buehrle the Thursday before the playoffs to have him set up to pitch game 1 of the ALDS, and have Garland pitch Friday (game 1 of the Indian series) to have him ready for game 2. Garland
will only go 4 or 5 innings that game and the rest of the weekend will be an exhibition of White Sox minor leaguers. So you can assume the Indians will win at least 2 of those games, if not all 3, bringing their record to 9-5/10-4.
So the biggest series for the Indians will come this Monday, the 19th in Chicago
. Since the Indians are closing in on Chicago that series will be the biggest series the White Sox, or the Indians, will have played all season to date. The outcome of this 3 game series will have a biggest impact on the playoff picture.
Even if the Indians lose 2 out of 3 next week in Chicago that will give them 10 or 11 more wins, and 93 or 94 for the season. Giving the White Sox enough cushion to coast into the finish line.
This brings us back to the Yankees, at 81-62. The Yankees will need to go at least 12-7 to force a 1 game playoff with the Indians (which will be in Cleveland
). Which means they need to win at least 1 more in Tampa (which I think they will) and take 4 out of 6 against the Jays (which I also think they will) giving them a 5 more wins (86)
That leaves 8 games with struggling Baltimore Orioles. Asking someone to win 7 games, against any team, is a lot. 5 is not enough. 6 should be the target number. That would give the Yanks 92 wins headed into Boston
for that final weekend. The Yankees HAVE to go into a Boston
in a position to need to win just 1 game, even if Boston
has already won the AL East. You know the Sox would like nothing more than to rid themselves of the Yankees headed into the Playoffs. While the Sox won’t destroy their rotation to do it, they will certainly play all their regulars.
This September will be the most exciting playoff race in the American League since 1995. You can expect the wild card to still be undecided come the final weekend with the possibility of a 1 game playoff looming after we have already played 162. Each game will be packed with playoff tension, and right in the middle of it are the K.C Royals and Tampa Devil Rays, who will play major roles in deciding who makes the playoffs. Who would have ever though that?
Prediction:
AL East: Boston
(96-66)
AL Central: Chicago
(99-63)
AL West: L.A Angels (90-72)
And
Wild Card: Cleveland (94-68)….I just think the schedule favors the Indians. The 7 with KC and season ending weekend series with the resting White Sox I think will produce 8 or 9 wins. The Yankees will need a win the last day of the season to force a 1 game playoff with the Indians…and not get it…
Very early playoff predictions
Division Series
Boston
over Cleveland
in 4
Anaheim
over Chicago
in 5
ALCS
Anaheim
over Boston
in 6